CISD trading explained: body-close confirmation in the Fractal Model

CISD — Change in the State of Delivery — is the mechanical confirmation event of the Fractal Model. It doesn't predict reversals; it timestamps them: price has body-closed through a defined level after delivering the other way.

The definition

The reference level is the open of the last same-direction run before the shift:

• Bullish CISD — price was delivering lower; the open of the final bearish run is the level; a candle body-closes above it.
• Bearish CISD — the mirror: the final bullish run's open, body close below.

A wick through the level is never the event. Only the close confirms — which cleanly separates three states: pending (candle forming), confirmed (body closed through), and absent (window ended without the event).

CISD is confirmation, not context

You can find a CISD on any chart if you look long enough. It only means something inside the operating order: directional context first, then model-timeframe structure at a qualified point of interest, and only then the paired lower-timeframe CISD. Without location, CISD is just a lower-timeframe event, and no amount of clean lower-timeframe delivery creates higher-timeframe validity after the fact.

Use the correct pair

These are FMP's core Automatic pairs; 1 second/1 minute and 15 seconds/5 minutes are deliberate fast-chart extensions. The vendor-published six-pair ladder instead ends with 4 hour/1 week and does not include FMP's higher-chart or fast-chart extensions, so the tables should not be treated as identical.

A 4-hour Candle 2 is confirmed by the first closed 15-minute body through the reference — not by where the 4-hour candle eventually closes. The event can arrive before the model candle closes: FMP exposes that completed paired-LTF evidence as a live heads-up, then finalizes the structural record at the higher-timeframe boundary. Live describes timing, never a relaxed rule, and a later higher-timeframe close does not erase a paired event that already happened.

Workflow

1. Model timeframe first — active candle, sweep, qualified location. Missing? Stop.
2. Direction before dropping down — the HTF sequence defines bullish or bearish; color doesn't.
3. The defined pair only — not whichever chart looks cleanest.
4. Mark the reference — final opposing run's open; don't move it as candles print, and don't slide it until a signal appears.
5. Wait for the closed body — a wick is pending, an unfinished body is pending, and a zone touch is neither. Location and confirmation are different jobs.
6. Keep ownership — once a reversal is confirmed, continuation advances C3/C4; it doesn't mint a new rolling C2 every bar. See Candle 3 and Candle 4.

FAQ

Is CISD the same as a break of structure?

No — CISD is specifically a body close through the final opposing run's open. Other structure concepts use different anchors; don't blend definitions.

Can CISD confirm before the higher-timeframe candle closes?

Yes. That's the live state — real confirmation on the pair, finalized at the model boundary.

Does a confirmed CISD guarantee continuation?

No. It confirms a historical close through a level. Context, invalidation, and risk remain yours.

Fractal Model Pro tracks these levels and pairings automatically — pending levels dashed, confirmed levels solid.